01 Rapeseed

Week 27 (June 30-July 4, 2025) National average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.880 yuan/jin, Anhui rapeseed oil content 42-43%, quoted 2.85-2.95 yuan/jin; rapeseed in Hubei quoted 2.85 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Jiangsu is around 2.85 yuan/jin; old rapeseed price in Hunan is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Hubei is around 2.85 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Sichuan is 3.00 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of the country remained stable, and the peak of rapeseed hoarding is coming to an end. Oil mills are now replenishing on demand, and the sales speed of rapeseed is not fast. In terms of supply, the supply of rapeseed is sufficient, traders are bearish on the future market, and rapeseed purchases are suppressing prices, which restricts rapeseed prices. In terms of demand, the industry is in the traditional off-season, the terminal market is slow to move goods, and the domestic oil mill operation rate is low, and the rapeseed consumption is reduced.

It is expected that the price of new rapeseed in the short term will be mainly stable, the domestic rapeseed supply is abundant, and the goods are slow to move, but the price of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the terminal market has improved slightly, and the rapeseed price is low. Traders are willing to support the price, which supports the rapeseed market.

International rapeseed: Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that as of the week of June 29, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons from the previous week, and 117,900 tons in the previous week. Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory is 1.2112 million tons. Recent rainfall in Canada's main producing areas has eased weather risks, and Canada's weather in July is more important to rapeseed production, so more attention should be paid to weather factors.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 27th week (June 30-July 4, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is: 9780 yuan/ton, which is higher than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the price of rapeseed oil futures fell this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9607 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the latest planting area report and quarterly grain inventory report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture USDA are neutral, the market reaction is flat, and there is a lack of substantive guidance. Second, the expectation of high yield of US crop growth is relatively strong, and more attention is paid to weather changes during the growing season. Third, the further direction of US biodiesel policy will also have a certain impact on my country's soybean oil market. On the fundamentals, a large number of domestic soybeans have arrived at the port, the crushing volume is at a high level, and soybean oil has entered a stage of accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose, which may restrict the height of soybean oil's rise in the short term. It is expected that soybean oil futures will remain volatile overall.

The spot market rapeseed oil is in the traditional off-season for consumption, coupled with the increasing inventory pressure of oil mills, and the market is in oversupply. Rapeseed oil's upward space is still constrained by high inventory and low demand, and we need to wait for positive signals from the market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to risks such as extreme weather speculation in Canada's main producing areas, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 27 (June 30-July 4, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal prices stopped falling and rebounded. The supply of imported rapeseed arriving at the port is small, and the operation of oil mills is limited, the crushing volume is at a low level, and the supply of rapeseed meal is tight, which is good for the rapeseed meal market. The price difference between soybeans and rapeseed is small, mainly due to the rigid demand of aquaculture. The demand for rapeseed meal is weak, and the speed of delivery is not fast, which is bad for the rapeseed meal market. It is expected that rapeseed meal will be mainly adjusted in the short term. Although the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed meal has been reduced, there is a lack of obvious support on the demand side. In the later stage, pay more attention to the price difference between soybeans and rapeseed meal and the trade relations between China, Canada and the United States.