01 Rapeseed

Week 28 (July 7-July 11, 2025) National average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.880 yuan/jin, Anhui rapeseed oil content 42-43%, quoted 2.85-2.95 yuan/jin; rapeseed in Hubei region quoted 2.85 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Jiangsu region is around 2.85 yuan/jin; old rapeseed price in Hunan region is 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Hubei region is around 2.85 yuan/jin; rapeseed price in Sichuan region is 3.00 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of the country continued to remain stable, with bargaining transactions as the main transaction. At present, the rapeseed market is trading smoothly and inactive, and oil mills are replenishing stocks on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mood. In terms of supply, the supply of rapeseed is sufficient, traders are bearish on the future market, and rapeseed purchases are suppressing prices, which restricts rapeseed prices. Overall, the market is in a balance of supply and demand. In the short term, the price of new rapeseed is still mainly stable. The supply of domestic rapeseed is sufficient, but the goods are slow to move. Pay more attention to the price of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the terminal market. In addition, the price of rapeseed is low, and traders are willing to support the price, which supports the rapeseed market.

International rapeseed: Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission showed that as of the week of July 6, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 72.1% from the previous week to 48,400 tons, and the previous week was 173,500 tons. So far in 2024/25, Canada's rapeseed exports have been 9.1541 million tons, an increase of 45.61% from 6.2868 million tons in the same period of the previous year. July is a month with relatively stable weather in Canada's main producing areas, and the market is not eager to speculate on the weather. It is expected that Canada's rapeseed yield per unit area this year will not be much different from last year.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 28th week (July 7-July 11, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is: 9644 yuan/ton, which is lower than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the rapeseed oil futures price fell this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9439 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, rapeseed meal performed better than rapeseed oil, and the rapeseed oil-meal ratio was significantly lower. Second, the USDA report on export supply and demand was slightly bearish than expected. Third, the export data and biodiesel concept were double-boosted, and Malaysian palm oil rose well, boosting the rapeseed oil market price. Fourth, the recent changes in the supply and demand of soybean oil are limited. The large-scale arrival of domestic imported soybeans continues to put pressure on the prices of soybean varieties and suppress the rapeseed oil market. Fifth, the market has good expectations for China-Australia agricultural cooperation, and Australian rapeseed is expected to enter China, which puts rapeseed oil under pressure.

The demand side of rapeseed oil lacks obvious support, coupled with the increased inventory pressure of oil mills, and the market supply and demand level is in excess of supply. It is currently the weakest among the three major oils and fats, constrained by high inventory and low demand, and needs to wait for positive signals from the market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, the recent demand for palm oil has improved, driving rapeseed oil to rise slightly. In the later period, we need to pay attention to risks such as extreme weather speculation in Canada's main producing areas, shifts in international trade policies, and US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 28 (July 7-July 11, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal continued to rise this week. Imported soybeans were concentrated at the port, and the operating rate of soybean oil plants reached a high level during the same period. The supply of soybean meal tended to be loose, which suppressed the market price of meal. The price difference between soybeans and rapeseed is low, and the cost performance of rapeseed meal is weak, which is not conducive to the demand for rapeseed meal. The aquaculture industry is mainly based on rigid demand, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak, and the speed of goods is not fast, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market. The trend drive of rapeseed meal is not significant, and it is expected to be dominated by weak fluctuations in the short term. Although the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed meal has been reduced, there is a lack of obvious support on the demand side, and there is limited room for further narrowing of the soybean-rapeseed price difference, so the possibility of rapeseed meal being strong is low.