01 Rapeseed

Week 29 (July 14-July 18, 2025) National average price of rapeseed net seeds: 2.880 yuan/jin, Anhui rapeseed price 2.85-2.95 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price 2.85 yuan/jin; Jiangsu rapeseed price around 2.85 yuan/jin; Hunan old rapeseed price 2.90-3.00 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price around 2.85 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market situation is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of the country continued to remain stable, with bargaining transactions as the main method. At present, the rapeseed market is flat and inactive, and oil mills are replenishing stocks on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mood. Negative factors: First, rapeseed is abundant and domestic supply is sufficient; second, rapeseed demand is weak, market activity is low, and rapeseed sales are slow; third, the current supply is concentrated in the hands of traders, and traders have different willingness to ship. Those with more supply are eager to go to the warehouse, and those with less supply are waiting for the market to improve before shipping; Positive factors: First, Australian rapeseed is expected to enter the Chinese market, but the price is more expensive than Canadian rapeseed, and the import volume is not expected to be too much. Second, the price of domestic rapeseed is low, and traders are willing to avoid losses and maintain prices. It is expected that domestic rapeseed prices will be stable in the short term, and the market is in a stable supply and demand pattern, so the price will not change much.

International rapeseed: As of the week of July 13, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 66.53% to 80,600 tons from the previous week, compared with 48,400 tons in the previous week. From August 1, 2024 to July 13, 2025, Canada's canola exports were 9.2348 million tons, an increase of 41.54% from 6.5247 million tons in the same period of the previous year. As of July 13, Canada's canola commercial inventory was 1.2049 million tons. Canada's canola is about to be harvested, and there is no obvious abnormality in its growth. In order to reduce its dependence on Canadian canola, my country is trying to expand its canola imports from Australia.

02 Rapeseed oil

In the 29th week (July 14-July 18, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil is: 9694 yuan/ton, which is higher than last week. The reference prices of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, the rapeseed oil futures price rose this week compared with last week. The closing price of the main rapeseed oil 2509 on Friday was 9586 yuan/ton. There are several reasons that affect the trend of rapeseed oil this week: First, the United States and Indonesia reached a tariff agreement, and buyers rushed to buy palm oil to avoid high tariffs, which stimulated palm oil exports. Second, Australia and China are close to reaching an agreement recently to allow Australia to export five batches of experimental rapeseed to China. At present, the price of rapeseed in Australia is higher than that in Canada, and the import cost is relatively high. Third, the impact of the US biodiesel policy and the good demand for US soybeans have boosted the market price of soybean oil.

The demand side of rapeseed oil lacks obvious support, and the inventory pressure of oil mills has increased. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory high point has slightly declined, but it is still at a high level during the same period, and the spot supply is relatively loose. However, soybean oil shipments are fast, and the palm oil tariffs have led to a huge increase in exports, boosting the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil futures prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are strong in supply and weak in demand, the recent demand for palm oil and soybean oil has improved, driving rapeseed oil to continue to rise. In the later period, we need to pay attention to the increase in production of new rapeseed. In the short term, we should pay attention to the China-Australia and China-Canada trade relations and the actual implementation of the US biodiesel policy.

03 Rapeseed meal

The reference prices of rapeseed meal in various regions in Week 29 (July 14-July 18, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

The price of rapeseed meal continued to rise this week. The spot market of rapeseed meal is currently in a weak supply and demand situation, and feed mills take destocking as their primary goal. In terms of demand, rapeseed meal is purchased on demand, mainly based on rigid production demand. On the other hand, rapeseed meal has a weak cost-effectiveness, which is not conducive to the demand for rapeseed meal. As the speed of US soybean sales has accelerated, the soybean meal market has been supported, and rapeseed meal has followed the strong trend. Although the pressure on the supply side of rapeseed meal has decreased, there is a lack of obvious support on the demand side. The possibility of rapeseed meal continuing to be strong is low. It is expected to fall back and adjust in the short term. In the later period, more attention should be paid to the price difference between soybeans and rapeseed and the demand of aquaculture.