01 Rapeseed

For Week 31 (July 28-August 1, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.850 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). The price in Anhui was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hubei, it was 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, it was around 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hunan, it was 2.85-2.9 yuan/jin; in Hubei, it was around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, it was 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market conditions in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices fell in various regions across China, with transactions primarily driven by negotiated prices. The rapeseed market is currently sluggish, with oil mills replenishing stocks based on demand, and both supply and demand sides are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Negative factors: A bumper domestic rapeseed harvest has resulted in ample supply; weak rapeseed demand, low market activity, and slow sales. Positive factors: Reduced international rapeseed production is expected to support domestic rapeseed prices. Domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the market experiencing stable supply and demand, leading to minimal price fluctuations.

International rapeseed: New-season rapeseed supply and demand are characterized by low initial inventories. Weather in producing areas remains crucial for rapeseed production, prompting caution regarding weather risks. The current outlook for China-Canada trade is crucial to rapeseed imports and the supply of downstream products. If imports of Canadian rapeseed continue to remain sluggish, downstream inventories in coastal areas are likely to remain low.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In Week 31 (July 28-August 1, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,674 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week, with the main contract 2509 closing at 9,524 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, the rising discount for Brazilian soybeans and the favorable planting progress of US soybeans weakened cost support for soybean oil. Second, the implementation of US tariffs, including a 19% tariff on Malaysia, impacted Malaysian palm oil prices. Third, the impending free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EU, coupled with Indonesia's increase in the August crude palm oil reference price, also provided cost support for futures prices. Strong quotations at production locations are supporting the oil and fats market. Fourth, China and the United States will continue to work to extend the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's countermeasures. This policy signal has sparked market concerns about trade trends, driving up rapeseed oil prices. Rapeseed oil demand lacks significant support. Due to tight rapeseed supply and delayed imports, oil mill operating rates remain low. This, combined with increased downstream demand, reflects a surge in demand. However, overall inventories remain at seasonally high levels, somewhat limiting the potential for price increases. Rapeseed oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Rapeseed oil fundamentals are strong in supply and weak in demand, and with palm oil and soybean oil performing relatively flat recently, rapeseed oil prices remain largely unchanged, awaiting market guidance. Later in the year, we should also monitor expectations for increased rapeseed production in the new season. In the short term, we should also pay attention to China-Australia and China-Canada trade relations, as well as the implementation of US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 31 (July 28-August 1, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices rose slightly this week. Positive factors: International supply shortage warnings were issued. High temperatures and drought in Canada, a major producing country, led to a sharp drop in the yield rate. Furthermore, frost affected the EU producing region, resulting in a production decline of approximately 14%. This tight rapeseed supply has led to a reduction in rapeseed meal supplies. Limited imports of rapeseed raw materials were actually delivered to ports by domestic coastal oil mills in July and August. Combined with seasonal pressure on domestic rapeseed supply, coastal oil mill operating rates have fallen to low levels, reducing rapeseed meal production and sparking market concerns. Negative factors: First, soybean and rapeseed prices are gradually decreasing, and rapeseed meal's price-performance ratio is lower than that of soybean meal, resulting in a decline in its share of feed. Short-term fluctuations are expected. Increased tariffs and delayed rapeseed imports continue to tighten domestic supply. Peak season demand for aquatic products persists, and rapid inventory reduction at oil mills is supporting spot prices. However, weak soybean meal prices and a low spread may limit the extent of price increases. In the future, we will focus on the quality rate of Canadian rapeseed, the progress of China's final ruling on Canadian rapeseed trade policy, weather speculation in US soybean producing areas, and domestic aquatic feed delivery volume.