01 Rapeseed

For Week 32 (August 4-8, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.850 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Prices in Anhui province ranged from 2.85 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu province, around 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hunan province, 2.85 to 2.9 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan province, around 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market conditions in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices remained stable across China, with supply and demand relatively balanced. Currently, the rapeseed market is inactive, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. Domestic rapeseed production is abundant, supply is ample, and demand is weak, resulting in slow sales. Domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Despite the high domestic production, the cost disadvantage is evident. Import diversification is being used to hedge trade risks, and diverging oilseed meal consumption is limiting the upward potential of rapeseed prices.

International rapeseed: The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised its old-crop production forecast for 2024/25 to 19.19 million tons, and the increased export forecast left year-end inventories unchanged at 1.1 million tons. The 2025/26 production forecast was slightly lowered to 17.8 million tons, with crushing and export targets set at 11.5 million tons and 6 million tons, respectively. The overall supply-demand balance remains relatively stable, and inventories are projected to remain at 1.1 million tons. Weather in Canada's main producing areas is favorable for crop development, with generally favorable yields and good quality rates. The forecast indicates good rainfall over the next two weeks, which will be beneficial for rapeseed growth. Rapeseed harvest has begun in the European Union, though recent weather has slightly hampered harvest progress, leaving the market relatively volatile.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In Week 32 (August 4-8, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,728 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared to the previous week. The main rapeseed oil contract, 2509, closed at 9,524 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, the US EPA proposed increasing the biofuel addition rate, boosting demand for biodiesel policies. Second, high palm oil production in August suppressed palm oil prices. Third, domestic imported rapeseed inventories remained low, providing slight support for domestic rapeseed oil prices. Fourth, due to tariffs, India increased its soybean oil purchases from my country, stimulating soybean oil demand and benefiting the domestic oil and fat market.

Rapeseed oil currently lacks inherent positive drivers, and its valuation fluctuations are significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors and the soy market. The rapeseed oil market lacks significant demand support, with tight rapeseed supply and low oil mill operating rates. While overall inventories are trending downward, they remain high, somewhat constraining the upward potential of rapeseed oil prices.

Rapeseed oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Lacking favorable factors, rapeseed oil prices will not fluctuate significantly due to the positive demand for soybean oil, and remain subject to market guidance. Later in the year, we should also monitor expectations of increased rapeseed production in the new season. In the short term, we should also pay attention to China-Australia and China-Canada trade relations, as well as the implementation of US biodiesel policies.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 32 (August 4-8, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices rose slightly this week. Domestic coastal oil mills saw relatively low actual arrivals of imported rapeseed raw materials in August, resulting in low utilization rates and reduced rapeseed meal production, sparking supply concerns in the market and positive for the rapeseed meal market. Weather-related risks to Canada's new rapeseed season are now minimal, and rapeseed meal demand is benefiting from the peak season for aquaculture. However, the soybean-rape price gap is narrow, and rapeseed meal offers a low cost-effectiveness, which is unfavorable for the rapeseed meal market.

Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. On the supply side, imported rapeseed arrivals are decreasing, while peak season demand for aquaculture continues. Oil mill inventories are declining, and supply is tight. The low soybean-rape price gap may limit price increases. Focus will be on the quality rating of Canadian rapeseed, progress on China's final trade ruling on Canadian rapeseed, weather speculation in US soybean producing areas, and domestic aquaculture feed delivery.