01 Rapeseed

For Week 33 (August 11-15, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.850 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Prices in Anhui province ranged from 2.85 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu province, around 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hunan province, 2.85 to 2.9 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan province, around 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market conditions in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices across China remained stable, with overall market supply and demand balanced. Currently, rapeseed trading activity is low, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the supply side, domestic rapeseed is entering its bumper harvest season, maintaining ample supply. Demand, however, is weak, with actual rapeseed sales slowing.

Domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. It's important to note that despite ample domestic rapeseed production, costs are a significant disadvantage. Meanwhile, diversified import channels have mitigated trade risks to some extent. Furthermore, the diverging consumption trends in the oilseed meal market have also constrained the upward potential of rapeseed prices.

International rapeseed: Weather conditions are favorable across most of Canada's rapeseed crop, leading to a bumper harvest. Furthermore, China has implemented temporary anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, impacting exports and putting some pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices.

02 Rapeseed Oil

For Week 33 (August 11-15, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,958 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week, with the main rapeseed oil contract 2509 closing at 9,757 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, the Ministry of Commerce's policy of imposing a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed, which will translate into anti-dumping duties, means higher import costs for Canadian rapeseed and lower arrivals, sparking concerns about tight market supply and positive for the oils and fats market. Second, the MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 2.11 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Indonesia reiterated its commitment to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% next year. The rapeseed oil market lacks significant demand support, with tight rapeseed supply and low oil mill utilization rates. Overall inventories are trending downward, but remain high, somewhat constraining price appreciation. The market is still digesting the impact of the preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and traders are increasing their import purchases, putting some pressure on rapeseed oil prices in the short term. However, from the supply side, the implementation of the anti-dumping policy may lead to a reduction in rapeseed port arrivals, providing some support for rapeseed oil supply. Furthermore, amidst the easing of Sino-Australian relations, continued activity in Australian rapeseed shipbuilding remains a key concern.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 33 (August 11-15, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices halted their upward trend this week and retreated. On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on canola seed originating from Canada, significantly increasing the cost of importing Canadian canola. As China's largest source of canola (accounting for 96% of imports in 2024), this policy has directly impacted the supply of raw materials for coastal oil mills. Oil mills in South China have already suspended sales and signing orders. In the short term, domestic rapeseed meal crushing volume is expected to decline by 30%-40%, and the supply gap will support high spot prices.

Rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. On the supply side, imported rapeseed arrivals are decreasing, while peak season demand for aquaculture continues. Oil mill inventories are declining, and supply is tight. The low soybean-rapeseed price gap may limit the extent of price increases. In the later stage, we will focus on the progress of China-Canada trade negotiations, whether China will launch an anti-dumping investigation on rapeseed meal, policy variables for adjusting U.S. soybean import tariffs, rainfall during Canada's new rapeseed harvest period (August-September), and logistics stability in the Black Sea region.