01 Rapeseed

For Week 36 (September 1-5, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.850 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Prices in Anhui province ranged from 2.85 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu province, around 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hunan province, 2.85 to 2.9 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan province, around 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market conditions in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices across China remained stable, with overall market supply and demand balanced. The new rapeseed crop has begun harvesting in Qinghai and is entering the market, gradually increasing the supply. As a result, rapeseed prices are expected to face some pressure in the short term, with the overall price trend expected to be weak. However, there is a key factor to consider: Canada has received a preliminary anti-dumping ruling. This means that domestic rapeseed imports from Canada may decrease in the future, and this change may provide a floor for domestic rapeseed prices, preventing a significant decline.

Taking all these factors into account, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with only minor fluctuations. As for future market price fluctuations, we will need to continue to monitor two key factors: the speed of recovery in the oil and fat consumption market and any changes to policies related to rapeseed imports.

02 Rapeseed Oil

For Week 36 (September 1-5, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9,918 yuan/ton, down from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared to the previous week. The main rapeseed oil contract, 2601, closed at 9,818 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors are impacting rapeseed oil prices this week: First, Canadian rapeseed imports have plummeted. Due to the 75.8% margin policy after August 2025, port arrivals are expected to plummet to below 130,000 tons per month. Furthermore, the extension of the survey to March 2026 means that Canadian rapeseed exports to China may remain restricted, potentially widening the supply gap to 1.5 million tons in the 2025/26 fiscal year. Second, domestic soybean oil futures prices continue to be influenced by both the raw soybean price and the US soybean oil futures price, resulting in a weak performance in the oil and fat market and dragging down the rapeseed oil market. Regarding rapeseed oil spot supply and demand, with the start of preparations for the two major holidays, downstream delivery volumes have increased. Inventories are expected to continue their destocking trend in September, but the high base will continue to suppress prices. As of the 35th week of 2025, domestic inventories of imported crushed rapeseed oil reached 737,000 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week, but a 3.4% decrease from the 762,600 tons in the 9th week of 2025.

Rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate and weaken in the short term (1-2 months). The concentrated arrival of new-season rapeseed in Qinghai, coupled with high soybean oil inventories, is expected to keep rapeseed oil spot prices within a range of 9,500-9,800 yuan/ton in September. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture's report on September 10th should be closely monitored. Any upward revision to production or weak export data could further dampen market sentiment. Domestic reserve auction activity: If the September auction volume exceeds 100,000 tons, it will exacerbate supply pressure in the spot market.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The regional reference prices for rapeseed meal for Week 36 (September 1-5, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices saw a slight increase this week. In the futures market, as of September 5, the main rapeseed meal contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at 2,550 yuan/ton, with the overnight session continuing its upward trend, reflecting market expectations of tight supply. Although Statistics Canada has raised its 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 19.9 million tons, China's continued imposition of a 100% anti-dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed has widened the forward supply gap, supporting a strong performance in the rapeseed meal market. In the spot market, oil mill inventories have fallen to low levels, and some traders are holding prices and being reluctant to sell, providing some support to the rapeseed meal market. On the supply side, limited domestic crushing coupled with continued inventory reduction has led to both short-term supply slack and concerns about a forward supply gap. On the demand side, weakening demand from the aquaculture industry and increasing substitution effects from soybean meal are negative for the rapeseed meal market. The rapeseed meal market is expected to exhibit a near-term weak-to-long-term trend. Low inventories will support a volatile and positive outlook in the short term, but investors should be wary of upside risks arising from a widening supply gap in the medium to long term. Investors should monitor policy and weather trends and adjust their positions flexibly.