01 Rapeseed

For Week 38 (September 15-19, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.875 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Rapeseed prices in Anhui ranged from 2.90 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, around 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hunan, 2.90 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, around 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market conditions in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed prices continued to rise across China this week. Mid-Autumn Festival preparations accelerated overall shipments. Prices increased slightly in Jiangsu and Anhui. Rapeseed prices in Inner Mongolia decreased due to poor quality caused by heavy rainfall. Regarding supply, sporadic rapeseed arrivals were reported in the northern market, and traders adopted a wait-and-see approach. Low inventories of high-quality rapeseed in the main producing areas of Sichuan and Hubei led to a tight overall supply, supporting the rapeseed market. On the demand side, boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, demand is strong and sales are accelerating, benefiting the domestic rapeseed market. Regarding international rapeseed, my country's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to lead to a contraction in Canadian rapeseed imports, supporting the market. Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with narrow fluctuations. However, it is important to be vigilant about the progress of China-Canada trade negotiations: if tariffs are lifted, increased imports of rapeseed will suppress prices; conversely, maintaining policy may support a rebound in domestic rapeseed prices. Furthermore, limited demand for stockpiling during the "Double Festivals" (holidays and festivals) and slow depletion of rapeseed oil inventories are hindering market growth.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In Week 38 (September 15-19, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,238 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared to the previous week, with the main contract 2601 closing at 10,068 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, the peak stocking period for palm oil for the Diwali festival has passed, leaving demand primarily dependent on Indonesian biodiesel. Currently, increasing demand for biodiesel is supporting the oil and fat market. Second, new Australian rapeseed oil will not arrive in China until the end of the year at the earliest, leading to tight supply forecasts in the market, supporting the domestic rapeseed oil market. Third, uncertainty surrounding US biodiesel policy has weakened market sentiment, dragging down the oil and fat market.

Domestically, this year's holiday stocking is less than in previous years, limiting overall consumer support. Domestic rapeseed oil supply and demand remain relatively loose, suppressing market prices. Currently, oil mill operating rates remain low, minimizing pressure on rapeseed oil output. In addition, with fewer rapeseed shipments in recent months, supply pressure is low, and rapeseed oil supply is forecast to be tight in the fourth quarter.

Rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate and weaken in the short term (1-2 months). Due to the concentrated arrival of Canadian rapeseed, slow reduction of high domestic inventories, and low prices for substitutes, rapeseed oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 9,800 and 10,100 yuan/ton. We should be wary of downside risks associated with a breakthrough in China-Canada trade negotiations (such as tariff removal). If imported rapeseed arrivals rebound to a monthly average of over 500,000 tons, prices could fall to 9,500 yuan/ton.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 38 (September 15-19, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices declined this week. This month's USDA report indicates an overall bearish outlook for rapeseed meal. Domestically, low rapeseed arrivals in recent months have reduced supply pressure. The peak aquaculture season is nearing its end, weakening rapeseed meal demand. The wide price gap between soybeans and rapeseed, coupled with soybean meal's strong substitution potential, has weakened rapeseed meal demand expectations. Canada is currently discussing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, prompting caution regarding policy risks.

The current rapeseed meal market is expected to exhibit a "weak near-term, strong far-term" pattern. Due to low domestic inventories, a sharp decline in import arrivals (estimated to be less than 100,000 tons in September), and pre-National Day stockpiling, prices are likely to fluctuate between 2,500 and 2,560 yuan/ton. If the China-Canada negotiations are unsuccessful, prices could rise to 2,600 yuan/ton.