01 Rapeseed

For Week 39 (September 22-26, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.875 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Rapeseed prices in Anhui Province ranged from 2.90 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei Province, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu Province, around 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hunan Province, 2.90 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei Province, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan Province, around 3.00 yuan/jin. Rapeseed market conditions across various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed prices remained stable across China this week. With Mid-Autumn Festival stocking nearing completion, overall shipments slowed, maintaining a stable market sentiment. On the supply side, sporadic rapeseed arrivals were reported in the northern market, and traders maintained a wait-and-see approach. Low inventories of high-quality rapeseed in the main producing areas of Sichuan and Hubei contributed to a tight overall supply, supporting the rapeseed market. On the demand side, with stocking complete, sales slowed, returning to their previous pace, negatively impacting the domestic rapeseed market. Regarding international rapeseed, my country's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to lead to a contraction in Canadian rapeseed imports, tightening domestic rapeseed supply and supporting the rapeseed market.

Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Declining domestic crushing activity and low inventories are balancing the supply of rapeseed. Australia's new rapeseed season will enter the market in October, but the first 50,000 tons ordered are expected to arrive in November-December, limiting domestic import replenishment in the short term.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In Week 39 (September 22-26, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,298 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared to the previous week. The main rapeseed oil contract, 2601, closed at 10,068 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, Argentina announced on Monday, September 22, that it would eliminate export taxes on all grains and by-products such as soybean oil and soybean meal in an effort to boost export sales. This announcement triggered a general decline in oil prices. Second, Argentina quickly reached its $7 billion quota and subsequently reinstated export tariffs, further boosting the market. Third, palm oil production is in a period of decline in the fourth quarter. Although international demand for palm oil is also weak, the supply side is supporting the market. Fourth, the expected weakening of rapeseed oil supply is supporting the rapeseed oil market. Domestically, oil mill operating rates remain low, limiting rapeseed oil production pressure. However, current rapeseed oil inventories remain relatively high, potentially limiting price increases to some extent. Anti-dumping measures against Canada are expected to tighten domestic rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter.

Rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate and remain weak in the short term (1-2 months). Short-term rapeseed oil price fluctuations are primarily influenced by supply and demand, as well as policy factors. On the supply side, expectations for a bumper Canadian rapeseed harvest are increasing, and the easing of Sino-Australian trade tensions may reduce import costs. Imported rapeseed arrivals increased by 15% month-over-month in September, indicating ample short-term supply. On the demand side, with stocking up for the two major holidays nearing completion, low prices for the alternative soybean oil are further dampening rapeseed oil consumption. However, domestic rapeseed oil inventories declined on a weekly basis, providing some support for prices.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 39 (September 22-26, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal market prices initially fell before rising, with the center of gravity falling compared to last week. Argentina's tariff exemptions have led to an estimated 400,000 tons of soybean imports, which is expected to increase soybean meal supplies, weighing on the rapeseed meal market. Domestically, recent rapeseed arrivals have been low, reducing supply pressure. However, the end of the aquaculture peak season has weakened rapeseed meal demand.

Rapeseed meal is expected to be dominated by a supply gap in the short term (1-2 months), making prices more likely to rise than fall. Rapeseed meal crushing continues to shrink, with spot trading volumes plummeting. Low inventories and supportive price sentiment are providing strong support. Aquaculture companies have limited demand for rapeseed meal as a substitute, making it difficult to further reduce the proportion of rapeseed meal added. Rigid demand from end-users is providing a floor for prices.