01 Rapeseed

For Week 41 (October 9-10, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.875 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Prices in Anhui province ranged from 2.90 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu province, around 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hunan province, 2.90 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan province, around 3.00 yuan/jin. This week's rapeseed market conditions in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices across China remained stable. Domestic rapeseed shipments were generally slow, and the market remained stable. On the supply side, the arrival of new-season rapeseed in northern China has increased supply, constraining rapeseed market prices. On the demand side, with the holiday season over, rapeseed sales have returned to their normal pace, supported by pre-stocked inventories, negatively impacting the domestic rapeseed market. Regarding international rapeseed, my country's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has led to a contraction in Canadian rapeseed imports, tightening domestic rapeseed supply and supporting the rapeseed market.

Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with domestic supply and demand relatively balanced. Australia's new rapeseed season has arrived, with shipments expected to begin arriving in November. Therefore, domestic imports will be limited in the short term, and rapeseed supply remains tight, but weak demand is also suppressing prices.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In Week 41 (October 9-10, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,410 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared to pre-holiday prices. The main contract, 2601, closed at 10,410 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, the MPOB announced a surprise increase of 7.2% in Malaysian palm oil inventories to 2.36 million tons in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of inventory accumulation and approaching the highest level in nearly two years. Second, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is impacting the market. The Indonesian government is considering raising the mandatory bioethanol content in gasoline to 10%. Meanwhile, Ministry of Energy officials stated that laboratory testing for B50 has been completed, with plans to implement the policy next year. Third, global soybean supply is ample, with large quantities of soybeans arriving at domestic ports. Oil mills are operating at high rates, putting significant pressure on soybean oil inventories, negatively impacting the oil and fats market. Fourth, Australian rapeseed will begin arriving in November, and with the uncertainty surrounding Sino-Canadian relations, domestic rapeseed supply may be in short supply from the end of the year to early next year.

Domestically, oil mill operating rates remain low, but recent increases in rapeseed oil arrivals have gradually put pressure on spot supply. On the demand side, post-holiday demand has slowed, and sales are sluggish, negatively impacting the rapeseed oil market.

Rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate and remain weak in the short term (1-2 months). On the supply side, while coastal oil mill operating rates are low, large volumes of rapeseed oil have recently arrived, leaving inventories high. On the demand side, the start of the peak consumption season is balancing the substitution effect. The end of the holiday season and the low price of soybean oil, a popular alternative, are further dampening rapeseed oil consumption.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 41 (October 9-10, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal market prices rose before falling after the holiday, with prices declining compared to last week. This was primarily due to the end of the peak season for aquatic product demand and the easing of soybean meal supply. On the demand side, some feed companies had already completed their raw material inventory before the holiday, resulting in weak demand for rapeseed meal after the holiday, and the market lowered its expectations for future rapeseed meal prices. On the supply side, most rapeseed meal producers, with a few operating, have seen overall output decline slightly compared to pre-holiday levels.

Rapeseed meal is expected to see support from limited imports and low operating rates at coastal oil refineries in the short term (1-2 months), while prices will be suppressed by the off-season for aquatic products and soybean meal substitution. Costs are also under pressure from falling international crude oil prices and accommodative soybean supply. Overall, rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate slightly amidst weak supply and demand.