01 Rapeseed

For Week 42 (October 13-17, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.919 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Rapeseed prices in Anhui Province ranged from 2.90 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei Province, 2.85 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu Province, around 3.01 yuan/jin; in Hunan Province, 2.95 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei Province, around 2.85 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan Province, 3.05 yuan/jin. Rapeseed market conditions in various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed prices rose across China this week, primarily due to tight overall supply. On the supply side, the arrival of new-season rapeseed in northern China increased domestic rapeseed supplies. However, due to my country's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, Canadian rapeseed imports declined, resulting in a tight supply, which is supporting the rapeseed market. On the demand side, the fourth quarter ushered in the peak season for oil and fat consumption, and rapeseed demand is improving. Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are likely to remain stable in the short term, as domestic rapeseed supply tightens and demand improves. Australia's new rapeseed crop has already hit the market, with arrivals expected in November. Therefore, domestic imports will be limited in the short term, and rapeseed supply remains relatively strong, which is positive for the rapeseed market. However, weak rapeseed meal and oil prices are dragging down rapeseed prices. If rapeseed oil and meal prices rise, rapeseed prices are likely to follow suit.

02 Rapeseed Oil

For Week 42 (October 13-17, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,200 yuan/ton, down from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices fell this week, with the main contract 2601 closing at 9,861 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil trends this week: First, the palm oil market, pressured by high inventories and replacement demand, saw prices fluctuate and weaken, dragging down the rapeseed oil market. Second, Indonesia's biodiesel policy upgrade and tightening global oil and fat supply and demand provided strong support, slightly boosting the oil and fat market. Third, as of October 17, rapeseed crushing capacity at coastal oil mills had fallen to 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of only 3.73%. Most oil mills were shut down due to raw material shortages, resulting in a 70% year-on-year decrease in rapeseed oil production, which supported the rapeseed oil market. Domestically, oil refinery operating rates remain low, but recent increases in rapeseed oil arrivals are gradually creating pressure on spot supply. On the demand side, weak rapeseed oil demand and slow sales are negative for the market. However, ample soybean oil supply and relatively competitive pricing are limiting demand for alternatives, and rapeseed oil demand remains primarily driven by demand.

Rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate and remain weak in the short term (1-2 months). On the supply side, coastal oil refinery operating rates are low, but rapeseed oil destocking is slow, and rapeseed oil inventories remain high. On the demand side, the peak consumption season has yet to arrive, and the significant substitution effect of soybean oil is further suppressing rapeseed oil consumption.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 42 (October 13-17, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal market prices fell after the holiday. This was primarily due to a decrease in temperatures and the off-season for aquaculture, which reduced rigid demand for rapeseed meal and lowered market expectations for future rapeseed meal prices. On the supply side, rapeseed meal production facilities across the country were operating at a low rate, resulting in a tight supply, which supported the rapeseed meal market. Feed companies preferred soybean meal, which offered a more cost-effective alternative. Rapeseed meal accounts for less than 7% of pig feed, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal market.

Rapeseed meal is expected to be supported in the short term (1-2 months) by limited imports and low operating levels at coastal oil refineries. The off-season for aquaculture and substitution with soybean meal will suppress prices. The Ministry of Commerce has extended its anti-dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed until March 2026, and the 75.8% margin policy will remain in place. If a breakthrough is achieved in the China-Canada negotiations, imported rapeseed and meal may arrive in large quantities at ports, exacerbating domestic supply pressures. Currently, the market's expectations for trade negotiations during the APEC summit in November are rising, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of policy shifts.