01 Rapeseed

The national average price of rapeseed (net seed) in week 43 (October 20-24, 2025) was 2.935 yuan/jin. Rapeseed prices in Anhui ranged from 2.95 to 3.08 yuan/jin; in Hubei, the price was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, it was around 3.01 yuan/jin; in Hunan, it was 2.95 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei, it was around 2.85 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, it was 3.05 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of China remained stable with slight increases, mainly supported by tight overall supply. Imports of Canadian rapeseed decreased significantly, and Australian rapeseed has not yet arrived. On the supply side, the new season of rapeseed in northern China entered the market, increasing the supply of domestically produced rapeseed. Affected by my country's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, imports of Canadian rapeseed contracted, resulting in a tight supply of imported rapeseed, which supported the rapeseed market. On the demand side, the fourth quarter will see the peak season for edible oil consumption, boosting rapeseed demand.

Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are likely to remain stable in the short term. Tight domestic rapeseed supply coupled with improving demand creates a supply-demand imbalance, supporting the rapeseed market. New Australian rapeseed has already entered the market and is expected to arrive gradually in November, limiting short-term imports and maintaining a tight supply, which is beneficial to the rapeseed market. However, weak rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are dragging down rapeseed prices. If rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal prices rise, rapeseed prices may follow suit.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 43 (October 20-24, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,104 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices declined this week. The main rapeseed oil contract (2601) closed at 9,761 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced the rapeseed oil price trend this week: First, coastal oil mills had relatively low rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed had not yet arrived at ports. It is expected that oil mill inventories will remain low in November, leading to a strong willingness among oil mills to maintain prices. Second, the B50 program was hampered, weakening palm oil demand and negatively impacting the edible oil market. Third, the start of a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US improved expectations for US soybean export demand, boosting market sentiment.

Domestically, oil mill operating rates remain low, but the volume of Russian rapeseed oil arriving at ports has increased, gradually revealing supply pressure in the spot market. On the demand side, rapeseed oil demand is weak, with slow sales, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market. Soybean oil supply is ample and its price is relatively advantageous, limiting the substitution demand for rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil demand remains primarily driven by essential needs.

It is expected that rapeseed oil prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term (1-2 months). On the supply side, coastal oil mills are operating at low capacity, but rapeseed oil inventory reduction is slow, and inventories remain high. On the demand side, the peak consumption season has not yet arrived, and the substitution effect of soybean oil is significant, further suppressing rapeseed oil consumption.