01 Rapeseed

The national average price of rapeseed (net seed) in week 44 (October 27-31, 2025) was 2.946 yuan/jin. Rapeseed prices in Anhui ranged from 2.95 to 3.08 yuan/jin; in Hubei, 2.85 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, around 3.05 yuan/jin; in Hunan, 2.95 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei, around 2.85 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, 3.08 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices in various regions of China remained stable with slight increases, mainly supported by tight overall supply. Imports of Canadian rapeseed decreased significantly, and Australian rapeseed is expected to arrive in December. Most coastal oil mills were shut down, and rapeseed inventory was low. Recently, high-level officials from China and Canada met during the APEC meeting in South Korea, releasing positive signals and suggesting a possible warming of Sino-Canadian relations. This has a negative impact on the rapeseed market. Regarding the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed, the new season's rapeseed has entered the market in northern China, increasing the supply of domestic rapeseed. The fourth quarter will see a peak season for oilseed consumption, and the quantity of imported rapeseed will decrease, leading to improved demand for domestic rapeseed.

Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Tight domestic supply and improving demand, coupled with a supply-demand imbalance, are supporting the rapeseed market. The new season's rapeseed from Australia has already entered the market and is expected to arrive gradually in November and December. Combined with the improving relationship between China and Canada, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal prices are relatively weak. Therefore, the domestic rapeseed market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 44 (October 27-31, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9854 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices declined this week. The main rapeseed oil contract 2601 closed at 9422 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced the rapeseed oil price trend this week: First, following the US-China trade talks, international soybean prices rose, supporting domestic costs. Second, the Indonesian B50 program may fall short of expectations, leading to weakened demand for edible oils, which is bearish. Third, soybean oil inventories remain high in the short term, creating significant inventory pressure and dragging down edible oil prices. Fourth, the MPOB report for this month showed a higher-than-expected cumulative inventory increase compared to the previous month, with the report being neutral to bearish. Fifth, the relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain, requiring close attention to its future direction.

Domestically, oil mill operating rates remain low, but the volume of imported rapeseed oil from Russia is increasing, gradually creating pressure on spot supply. On the demand side, the peak season for edible oils may be delayed, and rapeseed oil demand is not strong, remaining mainly at a basic level, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term (1-2 months). On the supply side, coastal oil mills are operating at low capacity, but rapeseed oil demand is weakening, and imported rapeseed arrivals are high, keeping rapeseed oil inventories at a high level. On the demand side, the peak consumption season has not yet arrived, and the substitution effect of soybean oil is significant, further suppressing rapeseed oil consumption. Coupled with the easing of Sino-Canadian relations, this is another bearish factor for rapeseed oil, so it is likely to fluctuate weakly.