01 Rapeseed

The national average price of rapeseed (net seed) in week 45 (November 3-7, 2025) was 2.946 yuan/jin. Rapeseed prices in Anhui ranged from 2.95 to 3.08 yuan/jin; in Hubei, the price was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, it was around 3.05 yuan/jin; in Hunan, it was 2.95 to 3.00 yuan/jin; in Hubei, it was around 2.85 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, it was 3.08 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic rapeseed prices remained stable across various regions, with sluggish trading and low market activity. Previously, domestic rapeseed prices rose slightly mainly due to expectations of tighter imported rapeseed supply in the future, but the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseed is suppressing the market. Regarding the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed, the new season's rapeseed has entered the market in northern China, increasing the supply of domestic rapeseed. However, most coastal oil mills are currently shut down, resulting in low rapeseed inventories. The fourth quarter is expected to be the peak season for oilseed consumption, and imports of rapeseed will decrease, leading to improved demand for domestic rapeseed. Internationally, data released by the Canadian Grain Council shows that as of the week ending November 2nd, Canadian rapeseed exports increased by 21.2% to 188,400 tons, compared to 155,500 tons the previous week. From August 1st to November 2nd, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports totaled 1,423,300 tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to 3,099,700 tons in the same period of the previous year. As of November 2nd, Canadian commercial rapeseed stocks stood at 1,318,700 tons.

In summary, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Tight domestic supply and improving demand, coupled with a weak supply and strong demand, are supporting the rapeseed market. New Australian rapeseed has hit the market and is expected to arrive gradually in November and December. We need to pay close attention to the ever-changing direction of China-Canada relations in the future.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 45 (November 3-7, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9904 yuan/ton, an increase compared to the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices saw a pullback this week. The main rapeseed oil contract 2601 closed at 9533 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, international biodiesel policy expectations may strengthen again, and domestic demand has rebounded significantly due to the previous price correction. Second, with no real-time progress in Sino-Canadian trade, weak supply and demand supported rapeseed oil prices. Third, Australian rapeseed will begin arriving in December, with an estimated 2-3 shipments per month, less than 200,000 tons, providing only minor support. Fourth, the upward trend in US soybeans has stalled, weakening cost support for the soybean oil market and increasing resistance to further price increases. The market is bearish on the MPOB monthly report; attention will be paid to the market reaction after the report.

Domestically, due to rapeseed shortages and production shutdowns along the coast, rapeseed inventories at oil mills and ports have declined more than expected, with rapeseed oil showing a more pronounced drop. On the supply side, attention is focused on the arrival time of Australian rapeseed in China. Currently, oil mill operating rates remain low, but increased imports of Russian rapeseed oil are gradually increasing spot supply pressure. On the demand side, the peak season for edible oils may be delayed, and rapeseed oil demand is weak, remaining primarily for essential needs, which is bearish for the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term (1-2 months). Coastal oil mill operating rates are low, but rapeseed oil demand is weak, and imported rapeseed arrivals are limited, while rapeseed oil inventories remain high. On the demand side, the peak consumption season has not yet arrived, and the substitution effect of soybean oil is significant, further suppressing rapeseed oil consumption. Future developments in Sino-Canadian relations will need to be closely monitored.