01 Rapeseed

Week 46 (November 10-14, 2025): National average price of rapeseed (net seed): 3.015 yuan/jin; Anhui rapeseed price: 3.00-3.12 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: 2.95 yuan/jin; Jiangsu rapeseed price: around 3.15 yuan/jin; Hunan rapeseed price: 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: around 2.95 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price: 3.10 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic rapeseed prices rose in various regions of China. Regarding the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed, most coastal oil mills were shut down, and the overall domestic rapeseed inventory was low. The fourth quarter will see the peak season for oil consumption, and the quantity of imported rapeseed will decrease, leading to improved demand for domestic rapeseed, which is beneficial to the rapeseed market. For the week ending November 9, Canadian canola exports decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons, compared to 188,400 tons the previous week. Canadian canola exports for the 2025-26 marketing year totaled 1,544,400 tons, a 54.10% decrease from 3,364,600 tons in the same period of the previous year. Canadian commercial canola stocks stood at 1,367,600 tons, compared to 1,318,700 tons the previous week.

Overall, domestic canola prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Tight domestic supply and improving demand, coupled with a weak supply and strong demand, are supporting the canola market. The new Australian canola season has already begun.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 46 (November 10-14, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,370 yuan/ton, an increase compared to the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices corrected this week, with the main contract 2601 closing at 9,923 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, uncertainty in Sino-Canadian trade relations led to strong market concerns about rapeseed supply shortages. Second, the Canadian biofuel production incentive program, implemented from January 2026 to December 2027, explicitly designates rapeseed oil as a core raw material, which is bullish for rapeseed oil prices. Third, the peak season for edible oil consumption and a decline in palm oil consumption led to an increase in the market share of rapeseed oil and soybean oil, resulting in improved delivery volumes and lower rapeseed oil inventories at oil mills.

Domestically, rapeseed oil inventories at oil mills and ports declined due to shortages and production stoppages along the coast. On the supply side, attention is focused on the recent arrival time of Australian rapeseed oil in China. Currently, oil mill operating rates remain low, but increased imports of rapeseed oil from Russia are gradually creating supply pressure in the spot market. On the demand side, the peak season for edible oils is approaching, with strong demand for rapeseed oil, which is beneficial to the rapeseed oil market.

It is expected that rapeseed oil prices will fluctuate with a slightly upward bias in the short term (1-2 months). The current edible oil market is in a state of "mixed bullish and bearish forces, and volatile trading," with the core contradiction concentrated on the offsetting effects of "supply-side support" and "weak demand." From a supporting perspective, palm oil production cuts are a relatively certain seasonal factor, and subsequent supply contraction is expected to gradually materialize, becoming the core anchor for edible oil prices. Meanwhile, declining domestic soybean oil inventories and low crushing margins limiting factory production will also constrain market easing from the supply side, providing bottom support for prices in the medium to long term. However, weak demand is a weakness that is difficult to improve quickly in the short term. Against the backdrop of consumption downgrading, the recovery pace of end-user demand is slow, and even if lower temperatures bring a seasonal boost to consumption, the effect may be less than expected. Furthermore, the policy-driven nature of rapeseed oil and the uncertainty surrounding Sino-Canadian relations may still be variables affecting market fluctuations, requiring vigilance against short-term shocks from policy adjustments or diplomatic developments. Overall, the edible oil market is unlikely to experience a sharp, one-sided rise or fall, and is more likely to maintain a volatile but generally upward trend.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The following are the reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for week 46 (November 10-14, 2025):

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal prices fell. Previous speculative sentiment surrounding rapeseed meal has subsided, and the current off-season for consumption has led to a price decline. On the demand side, with decreasing temperatures and the off-season for aquaculture, the rigid demand for rapeseed meal has decreased, and the market expects prices to fall. Low soybean meal prices and the lack of cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal have suppressed its substitution demand in feed, further weakening overall demand. On the supply side, rapeseed meal production in various regions is operating at low capacity, resulting in tight supply. Low inventory levels and continuous depletion have provided some support for rapeseed meal prices.

It is expected that in the short term (1-2 months), rapeseed meal will be in a weak supply and demand situation, entering a wide-range fluctuation pattern amidst mixed bullish and bearish factors. In the later period, close attention should be paid to the development of Sino-Canadian relations; if policies are relaxed, rapeseed meal prices may still face the risk of further decline.