01 Rapeseed

In the 48th week (November 24-28, 2025), the national average price of rapeseed was 3.028 yuan/jin. Rapeseed prices in Anhui were 3.00-3.18 yuan/jin; in Hubei, 2.98 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, around 3.15 yuan/jin; in Hunan, 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin; in Hubei, around 2.98 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, 3.10 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

Domestic rapeseed prices in various regions of China remained stable with slight increases this week. Most coastal oil mills were shut down, but the current domestic rapeseed market saw low trading activity and a slow circulation pace, resulting in an overall quiet market. On the supply side, domestic reserves tightened further, with downstream oil mills only maintaining rigid replenishment and limited purchasing scale. Coastal oil mills maintained low operating rates, resulting in insufficient demand. Prices remained generally stable, with tight supply of high-quality rapeseed coupled with traders holding firm on prices and reluctant to sell, supporting stable prices for high-quality rapeseed.

It is expected that rapeseed prices will maintain a stable to narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. Limited imports of Canadian rapeseed, low domestic rapeseed oil inventories, and the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season provided price support, while the gradual arrival of Australian rapeseed eased market bullish sentiment. Going forward, it is crucial to focus on the arrival pace, warehousing, and release of imported rapeseed (especially Australian rapeseed), as well as the actual recovery of downstream edible oil consumption. The limited volume of imported rapeseed also provided a floor for domestic rapeseed prices. The market outlook will depend on the actual recovery of downstream edible oil consumption and the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 48 (November 24-28, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10204 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices saw a slight downward adjustment this week. The main rapeseed oil contract 2601 closed at 9757 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced the rapeseed oil price trend this week: First, palm oil demand has not shown much improvement, and India's recent purchasing intentions have been relatively weak; second, the US policy on biodiesel remains wavering, with the core issue being the need for increased demand, but reluctance to accept excessively high prices for US soybean oil; third, rapeseed oil is constrained by supply pressure from Australian seed arrivals, which is bearish for the edible oil market; fourth, high import costs and continued destocking of rapeseed oil have created solid cost support, lacking independent upward momentum.

Domestically, coastal oil mills are shutting down, Australian seed has arrived, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory is low. However, increased imports of Russian rapeseed oil are gradually creating supply pressure in the spot market. On the demand side, the peak season for edible oils has arrived, leading to strong demand for rapeseed oil, which is beneficial to the rapeseed oil market. However, with no expectation of easing tensions in Sino-Canadian relations, concerns about tight rapeseed oil supply have not been alleviated, providing a short-term boost. But with Australian rapeseed arriving in November, rapeseed oil supply will increase, so attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-Canadian relations.

The rapeseed oil market is currently in a state of supply and demand balance. Short-term prices are supported by supply shortages, but a correction is possible in the medium term due to increased imports. The market is unlikely to break out of its current stalemate in the short term. The key to breaking this stalemate lies in the actual impact of Australian rapeseed arrivals and whether reserve policies can provide new impetus.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for week 48 (November 24-28, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week, exhibiting a "futures rise, spot price stable" pattern, maintaining an overall range-bound trend. On the demand side, declining temperatures led to the off-season for aquaculture, resulting in weak demand for rapeseed meal. This, coupled with ample soybean supply and accumulated soybean meal inventory (up 4.49% week-on-week), increased substitution pressure, suppressing the elasticity of rapeseed meal demand. On the supply side, the lack of breakthroughs in Sino-Canadian trade negotiations resulted in continued restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports. Domestic oil mills maintained 0 tons of rapeseed inventory and low operating rates, leading to a tight supply situation. This week, import channels for Russian rapeseed meal gradually opened, but short-term arrivals were limited, not changing the fundamental supply and demand situation.

It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term (1-2 months), with limited room for price volatility. Going forward, it is crucial to monitor the pace of Russian rapeseed meal imports, the release of Canadian production data, the progress of demand recovery during the off-season in aquaculture, and changes in the substitution effect of soybean meal.