01 Rapeseed

The national average price of rapeseed (net seed) in week 49 (December 1st-5th, 2025) was 3.028 yuan/jin. Rapeseed prices in Anhui were 3.00-3.18 yuan/jin; in Hubei, 2.98 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu, around 3.15 yuan/jin; in Hunan, 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin; in Hubei, around 2.98 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan, 3.10 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

Domestic rapeseed prices remained stable across various regions this week. The domestic rapeseed market is currently experiencing low trading activity and a slow circulation pace, resulting in a generally quiet market. Domestic supply is further tightening, with downstream oil mills only maintaining rigid restocking and limited purchasing scale. Coastal oil mills are operating at low rates, resulting in insufficient demand. Overall, prices remained stable, with tight supply of high-quality rapeseed coupled with traders holding firm on prices and reluctant to sell, supporting stable prices for premium rapeseed. In the international rapeseed market, Canadian rapeseed production reached a record high of 21.8 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 13.3%. This has led to a continued decline in ICE rapeseed prices, reflecting ample global supply and a strong bearish sentiment in the market.

Rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations in the short term. Limited Canadian rapeseed imports, low domestic rapeseed oil inventories, and the approaching traditional peak consumption season are providing price support, while the gradual arrival of Australian rapeseed has eased bullish sentiment. The dynamics of warehousing and distribution, as well as the actual recovery in downstream edible oil consumption, will be crucial factors in determining future market trends. The actual recovery in downstream edible oil consumption and the pace of Australian rapeseed arrivals will remain key factors to watch.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 49 (December 1st-5th, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,084 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices saw a slight downward adjustment this week. The main rapeseed oil contract 2601 closed at 9,618 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, palm oil remained relatively strong, supported by expectations of reduced production in Southeast Asia and a recovery in Indian purchases, which benefited the edible oil market. Second, palm oil performed strongly due to inverted import profits and cost support. Third, soybean oil was weak due to ample soybean arrivals and rising inventories. Fourth, rapeseed oil weakened somewhat due to marginal improvements in domestic supply and high inventory levels. Fifth, Canadian rapeseed production reached a record high, coupled with Australia's record production of 7.2 million tons, resulting in ample global supply.

Domestically, although Australian rapeseed oil shipments scheduled for November are arriving, actual crushing recovery will take time. Commercial inventories in East China have declined for three consecutive weeks, and the supply shortage persists. On the demand side, despite the peak season for edible oils, rapeseed oil demand has not shown significant improvement, with downstream take-offs decreasing and new orders remaining weak. There are no signs of easing tensions between China and Canada, and concerns about future rapeseed oil supply shortages remain. Continued attention should be paid to developments in China-Canada relations.

The rapeseed oil market is supported by supply shortages in the short term, but may see a correction in the medium term due to increased imports. In the short term, the market will focus on the speed of Australian seed customs clearance and the operating rate of oil mills to determine how well the supply gap is filled. In the medium to long term, changes in China-Canada trade policies will be crucial.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The following are the reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for week 49 (December 1st-5th, 2025):

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed meal prices fell due to a combination of factors: easing expectations of tight supply, the arrival of the off-season for demand, and high inventory levels. On the supply side, Australian rapeseed gradually arrived in ports from late November to December, alleviating domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory shortages and reducing market supply concerns. Previous trade-related speculation cooled down. Meanwhile, Canadian rapeseed production increased by 13.3% year-on-year to 21.8 million tons (a record high), further boosting global supply expectations and putting downward pressure on rapeseed meal prices. On the demand side, the winter off-season arrived, and lower temperatures sharply reduced demand for rapeseed meal feed, resulting in continued weakness. Inventory reduction pressure increased. Although supply tightness eased, it was insufficient to offset weak demand, significantly suppressing futures price increases. End-users purchased only as needed, lacking the motivation for unexpected purchases, resulting in a weak supply and demand situation in the market. High inventory levels further exacerbated price pressure. Currently, domestic rapeseed meal inventory is accumulating slightly, reaching a near 7-year high for the same period, and the destocking process is slow. High inventory levels are directly suppressing rapeseed meal futures prices. The rapeseed meal market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with narrow-range fluctuations and adjustments.