01 Rapeseed

Week 51 (December 15-19, 2025): National average price of rapeseed (net seed): 3.035 yuan/jin; Anhui rapeseed price: 3.08-3.18 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: 2.98 yuan/jin; Jiangsu rapeseed price: around 3.15 yuan/jin; Hunan rapeseed price: 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: around 2.98 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price: 3.10 yuan/jin. The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic rapeseed prices remained stable in various regions. The overall sales speed of the rapeseed market was slow, the supply of high-quality goods was tight, and prices remained high. The overall market atmosphere was quiet. Downstream oil mills maintained rigid restocking with small purchase scales. The operating rate of coastal oil mills was low, and prices remained generally stable. Regarding imported rapeseed, the global rapeseed harvest is now clearly established, and with Australian rapeseed arriving at ports, the increased supply in the domestic market is gradually being released, highlighting continued supply pressure and significantly suppressing rapeseed prices.

Rapeseed prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Limited imports of Canadian rapeseed and low domestic rapeseed oil inventories provide price support, but the scarcity of high-quality rapeseed has weakened demand. Going forward, the key variables influencing price trends will be the timing of the peak season for downstream edible oil consumption and the strength of actual demand.

02 Rapeseed Oil

In week 51 (December 15-19, 2025), the national average price of grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9364 yuan/ton, a significant decrease compared to the previous week. Reference prices for grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review: 

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly this week. The main rapeseed oil contract (2605) closed at 8744 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced the rapeseed oil price trend this week: First, US soybeans generally trended downwards, with significant overall production pressure and a lack of substantial demand support, resulting in continued pressure. Second, short-term weather conditions in Brazil have improved overall; if these favorable conditions continue, the overall pressure from abundant production may persist. Third, palm oil inventories are accumulating, soybean oil is following the decline in US soybean prices, and rapeseed oil faces selling pressure due to abundant production.

Domestically, the tight supply situation for rapeseed oil continues. Currently, coastal oil mills are operating at zero capacity, with zero rapeseed inventory. There were no rapeseed imports in November, and port inventories continued to decline month-on-month. However, diversified imports of rapeseed from Australia and Russia, along with abundant global and Canadian rapeseed harvests, are bearish for the rapeseed oil market. The tight raw material situation for domestic oil mills is unlikely to fundamentally improve, supporting rapeseed oil prices. Rapeseed oil prices have declined due to the drag from international edible oil prices. It is expected that rapeseed oil prices may stabilize and rebound in the short term, as the impact of bearish factors weakens, and reduced rapeseed oil supply provides support.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The following are the reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for week 51 (December 15-19, 2025):

Weekly Review:

This week, the rapeseed meal market continued its stalemate of weak supply and demand, with prices showing slight fluctuations. The price of ordinary rapeseed meal in coastal areas fell by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week. On the supply side, imported rapeseed inventories at domestic coastal oil mills remained zero, and mills continued to shut down, maintaining a tight supply situation in the short term. Meanwhile, the global market saw record-breaking rapeseed production in Canada, leading to expectations of ample global supply and exerting downward pressure on the domestic market. On the demand side, the market was in its seasonal off-season, and although soybean meal prices were relatively high, it still exerted substitution pressure on rapeseed meal, further weakening demand support. Overall, the short-term market is operating amidst a tug-of-war between tight near-term supply and ample far-term supply, coupled with weak actual demand. Price fluctuations are narrowing, and the key focus going forward will be on the arrival progress of Australian rapeseed and marginal changes in demand.