01 Peanuts

Week 2 (January 5th - January 9th, 2025): This week, domestic peanut market prices were mostly stable, with some areas showing a slight downward trend; supply was generally limited, and transactions were based on quality. National Peanut Price Summary (Unit: RMB/jin, some specifications in RMB/ton)

Weekly Review:

The current peanut market is characterized by a "generally weak market with premium varieties showing resilience."  In the short term, support from pre-Chinese New Year stocking and oil mill demand is unlikely to overcome the supply-demand imbalance. Long-term risks outweigh opportunities, and price support at the bottom may weaken further. Although high-quality peanuts show some resilience due to stable demand from oil mills, this cannot reverse the overall supply-demand imbalance. As the window for pre-Chinese New Year stocking shortens, the pressure on traders to recoup funds intensifies. If demand does not improve significantly, a concentrated sell-off may occur before the holiday, further weakening price support.  The long-term market outlook presents more risks than opportunities, influenced by factors such as higher-than-usual remaining stocks in production areas, low purchasing interest from oil mills, weak growth in the domestic market, and the impact of zero-tariff imported peanuts.  Market supply pressure is significant.  It is recommended that market participants rationally plan their sales pace and optimize their inventory structure. Traders should prioritize selling off lower-quality and high-inventory stock, while oil mills should purchase high-quality, low-priced raw materials as needed to mitigate risks.

02 Peanut Oil

Week 2 (January 5th - January 9th, 2025), the national average price of peanut oil was 15,700 yuan/ton. Reference prices are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, peanut oil market prices remained stable. The quoted price for standard Grade 1 peanut oil was approximately 14,300 yuan/ton, and for cold-pressed aromatic peanut oil approximately 16,500 yuan/ton. Although oil mills' theoretical crushing profits were still acceptable, market demand lacked sufficient support due to weak end-consumer demand, high peanut oil inventory compared to the same period in recent years, lower prices of alternative oils such as soybean oil, and sluggish demand for peanut meal.  While there was a slight boost from pre-Chinese New Year stocking, leading some oil mills to increase raw material purchase prices, the market faces pressure from increased imports of peanuts after the holiday and a more abundant supply in the long term, making significant price increases unlikely.