01 Rapeseed

Week 2 (January 5th - January 9th, 2025) National average price of rapeseed: 3.035 yuan/jin.  Anhui rapeseed price: 3.08-3.18 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: 2.98 yuan/jin; Jiangsu rapeseed price: around 3.15 yuan/jin; Hunan rapeseed price: 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: around 2.98 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price: 3.10 yuan/jin.  The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

Currently, the rapeseed market shows a pattern of tight domestic supply and gradual arrival of imported rapeseed, but crushing is delayed. Domestic rapeseed prices are fluctuating upwards at approximately 6250-6300 yuan/ton. Australian rapeseed is arriving in batches, but due to crushing profit losses, operations are slow, and domestic oil mills' rapeseed inventory is only 0.1 million tons, a historical low. In the short term, demand is slightly increased due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, providing some price support. However, the expectation of easing trade relations between China and Canada, subsequent concentrated crushing of Australian rapeseed, and lower prices of alternative meals such as soybean meal, coupled with the off-season for aquatic product consumption dragging down rapeseed meal demand, increase the supply pressure in the long term. Overall, the risks outweigh the opportunities. It is recommended that oil mills purchase high-quality domestic rapeseed as needed to avoid the risk of future price corrections.

It is expected that rapeseed prices will remain stable in the short term. Restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed oil inventory provide price support, but high-quality rapeseed is scarce, and rapeseed demand is weakening. Close attention should be paid to the crushing pace and actual arrival of Australian rapeseed in the future.

02 Rapeseed Oil

Week 2 (January 5-9, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9890 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous week.  Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly this week, with the main contract 2605 closing at 9042 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, Canadian Prime Minister Carney will visit China from January 13th to 17th, raising expectations of improved Sino-Canadian trade relations and supporting the Canadian rapeseed market. Second, Indonesia may confiscate another 4 to 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year and may increase palm oil export taxes to support its biodiesel policy, which is positive for palm oil prices. Third, falling crude oil prices dragged down the edible oil market. Fourth, oil mills are currently still shut down, and rapeseed oil stocks continue to be drawn down, supporting prices and maintaining a high basis.

Domestically, the increase in rapeseed oil prices stems from the reduction of spot stocks, but limited by weak overall demand, the upside potential for edible oils is limited, and excessive optimism is not warranted. Coastal oil mills have reached their lowest rapeseed inventory levels, with a 0% operating rate. Imported rapeseed oil inventory is 273,000 tons, continuing to decrease (down 23.18% compared to November), supporting spot prices. Short-term demand is expected to slightly rebound due to pre-holiday stocking for the Spring Festival; however, the expected concentrated crushing of Australian rapeseed later, and the potential increase in imports due to improved Sino-Canadian trade relations, coupled with lower prices of alternative oils such as soybean oil and weak end-consumer demand, limit the long-term upward momentum, and prices are easily affected by policy and supply fluctuations.

03 Rapeseed Meal

Week 2 (January 5-9, 2025) Reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices rose this week, with prices in coastal regions falling by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week. From a supply perspective, supply pressure has eased temporarily, and coastal oil mills will gradually resume operations, with rapeseed meal production gradually recovering from zero. However, the current inventory level is extremely low, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the short-term tight supply situation.  In addition, the expected improvement in Sino-Canadian relations is weighing on the rapeseed meal market. The favorable price advantage of soybean meal as a substitute weakens the demand outlook for rapeseed meal, resulting in a weak supply and demand situation for rapeseed meal. Overall, the forward market is under pressure, and the overall risks outweigh the opportunities. It is recommended that feed companies focus on purchasing based on immediate needs to avoid the risk of price corrections.