01 Rapeseed

For Week 37 (September 8-12, 2025), the national average net rapeseed price was 2.863 yuan/jin (approximately 1.5 catties). Prices in Anhui province ranged from 2.85 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, 2.75 yuan/jin; in Jiangsu province, around 2.90 yuan/jin; in Hunan province, 2.90 to 2.95 yuan/jin; in Hubei province, around 2.75 yuan/jin; and in Sichuan province, around 3.00 yuan/jin. Rapeseed market conditions across various regions this week are as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, rapeseed prices across China remained stable with some increases. Mid-Autumn Festival stocking boosted overall shipments slightly, with Jiangsu and Hunan provinces seeing slight price increases. Demand in the rapeseed market remained cautious, with overall trading performance falling short of expectations. On the supply side, small quantities of new-season rapeseed have arrived in the Hailar, Inner Mongolia, and Zhangjiakou, Hebei producing areas. Traders are still evaluating the quality and yield of the new-season rapeseed and are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach. Due to my country's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed imports are expected to decline in the near term, supporting the rapeseed market. Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. Overall, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to remain stable, with narrow adjustments in the short term. Two key areas require continued attention: first, demand in the oil and fat consumer market; second, any new changes to rapeseed import policies.

02 Rapeseed Oil

For Week 37 (September 8-12, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10,098 yuan/ton, up from the previous week. Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose this week compared to the previous week. The main rapeseed oil contract, 2601, closed at 9,857 yuan/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, expectations of weakening biodiesel demand led to proposals by US lawmakers to block the transfer of biofuel blending obligations from small refineries to large refineries. Second, Malaysia's August palm oil inventories increased to 2.203 million tons (up 4.18% month-over-month), while exports declined by 0.29%. Combined with expectations of increased production in Indonesia, these factors contributed to two consecutive days of declines in BMD palm oil futures. As a major substitute for rapeseed oil, weak palm oil prices weighed on domestic vegetable oil market sentiment. Third, rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving expectations of stronger biodiesel demand in the EU. In the rapeseed oil spot market, as of September 9th, domestic inventories of imported crushed rapeseed oil stood at 708,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 29,000 tons (a 4.01% decrease), but still at a historically high level for the same period. Inventory pressure stems primarily from two factors: first, an increase in Russian rapeseed oil imports (averaging 20,000-30,000 tons per month) and second, a slowdown in domestic consumption due to the off-season heatwave, leading to a lack of active stocking at the terminal level. However, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, some food factories are restocking, and inventory reduction is expected to accelerate.

Rapeseed oil prices are expected to fluctuate and remain weak in the short term (1-2 months). Supported by anti-dumping policies, rapeseed oil prices may remain volatile and strong. If there is no progress in China-Canada negotiations and the Australian trial shipments fall short of expectations, the main contract is expected to test the 10,000 yuan/ton mark.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions for Week 37 (September 8-12, 2025) are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Rapeseed meal prices rose slightly this week. As of the week of September 12, domestic imported rapeseed crushing volume fell to 49,000 tons, with a utilization rate of only 13.06%, a historically low level for the same period. The market expects domestic rapeseed crushing volume to further decline to 114,000 tons in September and October. This indicates a growing supply gap in rapeseed meal, supporting the rapeseed meal market. With the aquaculture season drawing to a close in mid-September, feed companies in East and South China are primarily purchasing for essential needs, resulting in a 12% month-over-month decline in weekly trading volume to 77,000 tons.

The current rapeseed meal market is expected to exhibit a "weak near-term, strong far-term" pattern. Until the arrival of new-season Canadian rapeseed (expected in mid-to-late October), the domestic rapeseed meal supply gap is unlikely to improve, and the high spot basis will provide support for futures. If there is no progress in the China-Canada negotiations, the main contract is expected to rise to 2,600 yuan/ton.