01 Sunflower

Week 38 (September 15-19, 2025) Domestic sunflower prices fell this week. Specific regional prices are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Previously, due to a shortage of sunflowers in the market, traders inflated prices. With the arrival of the new season's harvest, inflated domestic sunflower prices have fallen this week. New Kazakhstan harvest is currently entering the Chinese market, but volumes are limited and prices are expected to be around 300 yuan/ton higher than older stock. On the supply side, sunflowers have not yet entered the market in large quantities, and the tight supply is supporting the sunflower market. On the demand side, the arrival of new season harvests, coupled with stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, has increased oil mill operating rates and accelerated sunflower sales, benefiting the market. Foreign prices remain firm due to factors such as slow harvesting in Ukraine and drought-related speculation. However, actual production has not decreased, and there is a risk of a decline as harvesting accelerates. Kazakhstan prices are currently stable, primarily awaiting the arrival of Russia's new season sunflowers, which will provide a price reference. Domestic sunflower prices are expected to remain stable until the new season arrives. The current rise in sunflower oil prices, coupled with the high cost of sunflower oil, is likely to support market prices. In the future, we will continue to monitor the harvest progress in the main producing areas of Russia and Ukraine.

02 Sunflower Oil

Week 38 (September 15-19, 2025): The average domestic price of sunflower oil was 12,100 yuan/ton. Grade-A sunflower oil in Jiangsu was quoted at 12,300 yuan/ton; in Xinjiang at 11,200 yuan/ton; in Tianjin at 12,300 yuan/ton; and in Shanghai at 12,250 yuan/ton. Regional prices are as follows:

Weekly Review:

Domestic sunflower oil prices continued to rise this week. The market is experiencing severe shortages and limited supply, as consumers await the arrival of the new season's sunflower oil. At the end of the sunflower season, domestic and international sunflower oil supplies are tight, with low operating rates and low crushing volumes, supporting market prices. Sunflower oil is currently in peak stocking season for the Mid-Autumn Festival, resulting in strong demand and increased shipments. As of September 19, the September price at Russian Black Sea ports was $1,165/ton, an increase from the previous week. This increase in costs is positive for the domestic sunflower oil market. However, sunflower oil prices remain high, offering a poor value for money, leading to a corresponding decrease in demand and restraining price increases.

In the short term, sunflower oil prices are likely to remain stable. Based on supply and demand fundamentals, the current market remains relatively tight before the new season's sunflower crop officially enters the market. Coupled with continued demand for Mid-Autumn Festival stocking, traders are generally willing to maintain prices, providing support for short-term price stability. However, current sunflower oil prices are already relatively high, and market acceptance has significantly weakened, which to some extent limits further price increases. Furthermore, with the new season's sunflower crop approaching, market expectations for a downward trend in prices are also negatively impacting the current sunflower oil market, further limiting short-term price fluctuations.