01 Rapeseed

Week 50 (December 8-12, 2025) National average price of rapeseed: 3.035 yuan/jin. Anhui rapeseed price: 3.08-3.18 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: 2.98 yuan/jin; Jiangsu rapeseed price: around 3.15 yuan/jin; Hunan rapeseed price: 3.10-3.15 yuan/jin; Hubei rapeseed price: around 2.98 yuan/jin; Sichuan rapeseed price: 3.10 yuan/jin.  The rapeseed market situation in various regions this week is as follows:

Weekly Review:

This week, domestic rapeseed prices in various regions remained stable with slight increases. The overall sales speed of rapeseed was relatively slow, and the supply of high-quality rapeseed was tight, maintaining high prices. The overall market atmosphere was subdued, with downstream oil mills maintaining only necessary replenishment and limited procurement. Coastal oil mills operated at low capacity, resulting in insufficient demand. Prices remained generally stable, supported by the tight supply of high-quality rapeseed and traders holding back sales. Regarding imported rapeseed, Australia resumed experimental exports of rapeseed to China, but the increase was limited.  Furthermore, China-Canada relations have not yet eased, supporting rapeseed market prices.

It is expected that rapeseed prices will likely remain stable in the short term. Restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed oil inventories provide price support, but the limited supply of high-quality rapeseed weakens demand. Future market trends will depend on the actual recovery of downstream edible oil consumption and the arrival schedule of Australian rapeseed.

02 Rapeseed Oil

During the 50th week (December 8th-12th, 2025), the national average price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10094 RMB/ton, a slight increase compared to the previous week.  Reference prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in various regions are as follows:

Weekly Review:

In the futures market, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly this week. The main contract for rapeseed oil (2601) closed at 9347 RMB/ton on Friday. Several factors influenced rapeseed oil prices this week: First, the MPOB supply and demand report showed that Malaysian palm oil production in November was 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month; Malaysian palm oil exports in November were 1.212 million tons, a decrease of 28.13% month-on-month; and as of the end of November, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.835 million tons, an increase of 13.04% month-on-month, with actual inventory slightly higher than expected. Second, inventory pressure in palm oil producing regions remains significant; although it is currently the off-season for production, the inventory turning point may not occur until December. Third, regarding rapeseed oil, market rumors suggest that customs authorities are increasing scrutiny of imports of non-GMO rapeseed oil from Russia, and Germany has terminated the practice of double-counting advanced waste fuels as biofuel raw materials, which is positive for the demand outlook for rapeseed oil. Fourth, Argentina announced a reduction in export tariffs on soybeans and related products, which may enhance its export competitiveness and further squeeze the market share of US soybeans.

Domestically, the tight supply of rapeseed oil continues. Experimental exports of Australian rapeseed to China have resumed, but the increase is limited; also, due to the cancellation of railway transportation discounts for Russian rapeseed oil in January 2026, import costs have increased, and supply is expected to decrease. Although the sensitivity of Canadian rapeseed exports to China has decreased, trade policies have not significantly loosened, making it difficult to fundamentally improve the tight raw material situation for domestic oil mills, thus supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the negative impact of international oil and fat market trends is weighing on the rapeseed oil market. In the short term, rapeseed oil prices may fall; when the negative market factors weaken, rapeseed oil prices may stabilize and rebound, mainly supported by the reduced supply of rapeseed oil.

03 Rapeseed Meal

The following are the reference prices for rapeseed meal in various regions during Week 50 (December 8-12, 2025):

Weekly Review:

This week, the rapeseed meal market continued the stalemate of weak supply and demand, with prices showing slight fluctuations and adjustments.  The price of ordinary rapeseed meal in coastal areas increased by 20-40 yuan/ton compared to last week. From the supply side, domestic coastal oil mills' imported rapeseed inventory continued to be depleted, and imports of Canadian rapeseed were almost halted due to trade policy restrictions. Oil mills have been shut down for nearly a month. Although the market expects the first shipment of Australian rapeseed to arrive and be processed in mid-December, a stable supply flow has not yet been established, and the short-term supply shortage remains unchanged.  However, the global market, due to Canada's record-breaking rapeseed production of 21.8 million tons, coupled with increased production in Russia and Australia, has created expectations of ample global supply, putting downward pressure on the domestic market. On the demand side, it is the seasonal off-season. The end of the peak season for aquaculture has led to a sharp decrease in demand.  Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal deliveries were only 0.01 million tons.  At the same time, although soybean meal prices are relatively high, it still acts as a substitute for rapeseed meal, further weakening demand support. Overall, the short-term market is operating in a tug-of-war between tight near-term supply and ample long-term supply, and weak actual demand. Price fluctuations have narrowed.  Going forward, attention should be focused on the progress of Australian rapeseed arrivals and marginal changes in demand.